In 2023, the US State Department turned down an extraordinary 250,000 student visa requests, accounting for 36% of all applicants. This is a record-breaking figure. Between 2021 and 2023, student visas in the US were rejected at almost twice the rate of other kinds of non-immigrant visa applications, such as business and tourism. According to the associate director of immigration studies at The Cato Institute, David J. Bier, this is "far above the norm."

Although there has been steady growth in the total number of student visas issued in the US over the past three years, following the pandemic-fuelled record low, issuances remain well below their peak in 2015 and denial rates have risen from 15% in 2014 to 36% last year.

So what's it all about?

Well, while countries such as the UK, Canada, and Australia have actively worked to limit the number of international students, NAFSA (National Association of Foreign Student Advisers) suggests that in the US, attempts to attract such students have been "stymied by an outdated immigration system."

Indeed, last year Australia registered its highest student visa denial rate last September, of 34%, whilst in the UK, the country's five priority markets all saw rejection rates jump in the second half of last year.

Although the US State Department doesn't specify the grounds for student visa refusals, according to Bier, a significant portion of non-immigrant visa denials stem from an inability to demonstrate non-immigrant intent. This entails providing evidence of strong connections to one's home country that would compel the applicant to return after their visa expires. "If it seems likely that a visa applicant might overstay their welcome, consular officials have a wide latitude for denial and they are almost never going to be punished for saying no," a US immigration lawyer told The PIE News. "Consular officials are aware of fraud in other countries and are careful and judicious about who they approve. There is also still a view held by some that they are the dyke holding back an uncontrollable flood of migration."   

Issues with proof of non-immigrant intent

For certain students, proving non-immigrant intent can be especially challenging as they often lack the robust economic and social ties of more established visa applicants. This difficulty is compounded by their intention to stay in the US for an extended period. Back in 2021, officials at the State Department sought to revert to the previous, less stringent standard of evidence for student visas, arguing that "the natural circumstances of being a student do not disqualify the applicant." Yet, while this acknowledgement represented a positive step towards giving students the benefit of the doubt, the increase in visa denials in 2023 indicates that it did not address the issue comprehensively enough.

For several years now, NAFSA has been advocating for the expansion of dual intent for F-1 visa applicants. This change would enable students to express an intention to remain in the US after finishing their degree without risking their chances of obtaining a visa.

Visa denial by nationality

The State Department hasn't disclosed the denial rate by nationality for 2022 or 2023. That said, the increase in applications from Indian students, who typically face a higher rejection rate historically, may have played a role in the overall rise in visa denials. "China used to be one of our top two countries of origin of international students coming to SDSU, but now it's fallen out of the top five. India, on the other hand, is not only number one, but it's number one by far. And I know that we're not alone in that," said Eddie West, Assistant Dean of International Strategy at San Diego SU. 

Educators are also concerned about the adverse impact on America's interpersonal connections and the detrimental effect on the country's reputation as a desirable study location. This concern may lead prospective students to seek educational opportunities elsewhere.