New figures out this week have revealed that the number of overseas workers and students applying for UK visas dropped by a third in July compared to the same month last year. Provisional data from the Home Office shows that last month 91,300 people applied for visas to enter the UK as skilled workers, health and care workers, or students, down from 143,000 in July 2023. After the March reform that limited migrant health and care workers from bringing family members to the UK, only 10,800 visa applications were submitted for these roles between April and July 2024, representing an 81% drop compared to the same period in 2023. In addition, there were 22,200 applications for dependants through the health and care worker route during this time, marking a 71% decline from the corresponding period last year. 

In contrast, from January 2022 to March 2024, the number of skilled worker visa applications from primary applicants remained “broadly stable” at around 6,000 per month. This stability follows changes made by Rishi Sunak's former Conservative government earlier this year, which raised the salary threshold for skilled worker visas from £26,200 to £38,700 and reduced the number of roles on the shortage occupation list, in addition to restricting health workers from bringing family members to the UK. New Home Secretary Yvette Cooper wrote to the government's Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) last week, suggesting that visa restrictions for skilled individuals in IT, telecommunications, and engineering roles coming to Britain to fill jobs might be tightened. She asked the MAC to “look at key occupations to understand the reasons behind their reliance on international recruitment.” 

What impact will this decline in visa applications have on shortages in different sectors?

The director of campaigns and research at the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, Shazia Ejaz made reference to the recent Labour Market Tracker, which shows 48,200 active job postings for care workers and home carers, People Management reports. “Politicians tend to talk of sky-high immigration numbers, but we don’t talk enough about the high levels of worker shortages and economic inactivity we endure,” she said. “We should stop playing politics around crucial staffing needs and start making the most of both domestic and overseas talent,” Ejaz added.

According to the head of immigration at Bates Wells, Chetal Patel: “It’s clear that migration has been of the utmost importance to fill vacancies in our care system, but the root causes of shortages haven’t been dealt with.

“The knock-on impact of most international students and care workers not being able to bring their partners or children to the UK under the rule changes in March this year is, to a certain extent, now playing out in the latest figures. The UK may now be seen as a less attractive destination for families who don’t want to be split up.”

Likewise, Smruti Jeyanandhan, a senior associate at Bates Wells, noted that the changes to the skilled worker visa route have left many employers struggling to attract the critical talent they need, yet added the “biggest blow is the ban on bringing dependants, making it nearly impossible for many skilled workers with young families to relocate.” Consequently, the available talent pool is “shrinking rapidly, deepening the labour crisis in the NHS and care home sector, and leaving the most vulnerable at risk.”

Skills shortages in the UK’s tech sector

The drop in applications may have a massive impact on the country’s skills shortages, especially in the tech sector. Indeed, the technology industry has traditionally depended on international talent to fill specialised roles. As such, a decline in visa applications may make it more challenging for companies to find qualified candidates for critical positions. Furthermore, as companies face difficulties in finding qualified workers to bridge the skills gap, there may be a stronger push toward automation and the use of AI to offset the shortage of human resources. To tackle these challenges, businesses might invest in domestic education and initiatives like skill boot camps to upskill individuals in high-demand areas.